Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
